When Will Trump Blink? Watch the VIX, Says Wall Street Strategist

​As markets reel and volatility skyrockets, a new theory is making the rounds on Wall Street: President Trump won’t ease his trade war stance until the VIX tops his approval rating.

That’s the tongue-in-cheek suggestion from Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. With the VIX now closing above 30 for 10 straight sessions—a streak not seen since October 2022—he says we may be nearing the point where political pressure could finally outweigh tariff aggression.

Kantrowitz points to what he calls a “Trump put,” a threshold where market volatility and voter discontent push the White House to shift course. Right now, both are rising. And with stock market losses mounting, even Trump’s inner circle is reportedly watching investor sentiment closely.

According to Kantrowitz, if earnings estimates fall another 6% by July—as he forecasts based on historical patterns—the economic backdrop could look a lot worse heading into election season. That could force Trump’s hand.

But even if the economic data weakens, markets may choose to look past it—as long as policy risk starts to fade. “If we get a material change in Trump’s policies, markets will see relief and look through the weak data that follows,” he wrote.

The data backs it up: price-to-earnings ratios are under pressure, credit spreads are stuck in no-man’s-land, and uncertainty is weighing on risk appetite across both equity and bond markets.

In short: a pivot could spark a relief rally, but until then, expect more chop—and a White House that won’t blink until the market pain gets even louder.

​Bottom line: Forget the polls—Wall Street’s new approval tracker for Trump might just be the VIX.