Wall Street Sees 10% Rebound by Year-End—But Should You Believe It?

​Wall Street is still calling for a year-end rally—but after a brutal April and a tidal wave of downward revisions, investors are being told: don’t buy the hype just yet.

A new MarketWatch survey shows that the median S&P 500 target for 2025 now sits at 5,950, implying a 10% gain from current levels. But just two weeks ago—before Trump reignited trade war fears with sweeping new tariffs—the median target was around 6,600. The consensus has now been slashed nearly 10% in record time.

Firms like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS have all downgraded their expectations, citing the growing threat of a tariff-fueled recession. But they’re still largely predicting a rebound—just a smaller one.

Market strategists warn that these targets are more of a “temperature check” than a crystal ball. Historically, Wall Street forecasters miss the S&P’s year-end level by nearly 14%, according to data from Nationwide Financial. And with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause offering only temporary clarity, earnings estimates are now built on shaky ground.

“I don’t know how anyone could project earnings at this point,” said Tom Bruce of Tanglewood Total Wealth. “Any forecast is basically a guess.”

​Bottom line: Wall Street’s optimism isn’t dead—but it’s dented. And with uncertainty still swirling, investors may want to hold off on popping the champagne over any double-digit rally predictions.