Wall Street’s Bonus Dreams Crushed by Tariff Turmoil

​Wall Street’s 2025 bonus season is shaping up to be a bust.

Just six months ago, finance professionals were riding high, expecting one of the best bonus years in recent memory. But now, thanks to Trump’s tariff blitz and geopolitical chaos, those hopes have gone up in smoke.

The Bonus Breakdown
According to new estimates from Johnson Associates, most workers in finance will see lower pay this year—especially those in IPO underwriting, where bonuses are expected to plunge 20% from 2024. That’s a massive reversal from last November, when analysts predicted a 25% increase.

The culprit? Tariffs. Trump’s aggressive “reciprocal” tariff policy sparked a market rout in April, sending dealmaking into deep freeze mode. While stocks have recovered somewhat, IPO activity and public offerings are still on pause as companies await clarity on trade policy.

Even private equity, which typically weathers volatility well, is feeling the pinch.

Where the Pain Is Hitting
The damage isn’t limited to IPO desks. Bonuses are expected to fall across:
-Hedge funds
-Asset management
-Wealth management
-Retail and commercial banking
-Corporate finance staff

Overall, most roles across the finance world are looking at 5% to 10% pay cuts, a sharp contrast from the optimism of late 2024.

Traders Still Win
The lone bright spot? Traders. Thanks to volatile markets, trading desks are in high demand. Bonuses for equity and debt traders may jump as much as 25%, along with roles in alternatives and secondaries.

As Alan Johnson of Johnson Associates put it, “Hopefully we’re wrong, and things turn around in the next three to six months—but I wouldn’t bet on it.”

Bottom Line
​The dream of a banner year for bonuses has been derailed by tariffs, uncertainty, and a frozen deal pipeline. Unless trade talks thaw fast, 2025 could go down as Wall Street’s most disappointing payout year since 2022—and with fewer hiring prospects to boot.