Thanksgiving Cheer Lifts Markets, but Risks Lurk

​Wall Street Starts the Feast Early
Thanksgiving hasn’t even fully arrived, and U.S. markets are already acting like they’ve been handed a second slice of pie. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all notched a fourth straight day of gains, extending a rebound that’s starting to feel like a pre-holiday tradition. Tech names did much of the heavy lifting, with Oracle bouncing after analysts argued its recent dip looks more like a shopping opportunity than a warning sign. Nvidia and Microsoft rode the same wave, because in this market, AI optimism still spreads fast.

The mood is upbeat, the tape is green, and investors are leaning into the seasonal myth that Thanksgiving week tends to treat stocks kindly.

The Fed Is the Next Course
That warm glow comes with a timer. Futures markets are pricing in a strong chance the Fed cuts rates in December. And when expectations get that high, the risk is simple: if the Fed doesn’t deliver, the market could throw a tantrum.

There’s also a longer game brewing. If Kevin Hassett ends up as the next Fed chair once Jerome Powell steps down, traders expect an even friendlier rate environment down the road. That possibility is helping power bold forecasts for 2026, with some strategists throwing around end-of-next-year S&P 500 targets in the 7,400–8,000 range. Translation: lower rates plus steady earnings could mean another year of upside — if the stars line up.

Apple vs Samsung: The Smartphone Lead Changes Hands
While markets celebrated, another milestone quietly snapped into place. Apple is on track to ship more iPhones than Samsung this year — the first time in 14 years it would reclaim the global crown. Estimates put Apple around 243 million iPhones versus roughly 235 million Samsung phones.

It’s not just a bragging-rights stat. It’s a reminder that Apple’s ecosystem still prints loyalty at scale, even in a world where smartphone growth is supposedly “mature.”

The U.K. Tries to Spark a Startup Party
Across the Atlantic, Britain rolled out an Autumn Budget aimed at making the country friendlier to startups. The package includes tax breaks for startup employees and investors, plus frozen income-tax thresholds — a move critics call a stealth tax on workers, but one that also keeps government revenue steady.

Markets took the budget as a mild positive, especially for U.K. banks and growth names. It’s another example of governments trying to chase innovation without blowing a hole in the fiscal floor.

AI’s Boom Comes With a Job Warning
Here’s the sharper edge behind all the AI champagne: a new MIT study estimates AI could replace about 11.7% of the U.S. workforce — work tied to roughly $1.2 trillion in wages. The most exposed areas are finance, health care, and professional services, where tasks are structured enough for automation to bite hard.

That doesn’t mean mass layoffs tomorrow. But it does mean the AI revolution isn’t just about dazzling products and fat margins — it’s also about a coming reshuffle in what human work looks like.

Bottom Line
Markets are enjoying an early Thanksgiving lift, rate-cut hopes are powering the optimism, and AI is still the main engine. But underneath the celebration sits a familiar warning: when expectations get too perfect — about the Fed, about tech, about growth — reality has a way of showing up uninvited.

​For now, investors are feasting. Next week is when we find out if the meal settles well.