Pro Ticker Research Brief · TSM: Put the Growth Rates in One Currency Before Calling Acceleration

Research created at 9:32 AM ET, November 13, 2026 · Full analysis

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• CURRENCY CHANGES THE GROWTH HEADLINE: TSMC’s Q3 revenue rose 50.9% in Taiwan dollars but 41.2% in U.S. dollars, a 9.7-percentage-point difference for the same quarter. That gap is translation, not additional chip demand. [4]

• October revenue reached a record NT$586.89 billion, up 59.7% year over year and 14.7% month over month, in the November 10 release. Its annual growth exceeded Q3’s Taiwan-dollar rate by 8.8 percentage points, not the 18.5 points implied by comparing October with Q3’s dollar growth. Even the corrected comparison mixes a month with a quarter. [4][5]

• Q4 GUIDANCE IMPLIES CONTINUED EXPANSION, NOT FASTER SEQUENTIAL DOLLAR GROWTH: revenue guidance of US$52.3–54.3 billion represents calculated growth of 11.9%–16.2% from Q3’s US$46.72 billion, versus Q3’s reported 16.2% sequential increase. [4]

• At an illustrative NT$31.8 per U.S. dollar, October sales translate to US$18.46 billion, or 34.6% of Q4’s US$53.3 billion guidance midpoint. This is a conversion scenario, not a reported monthly dollar-growth rate. [4][5]

• Revenue strength is not translating one-for-one into margins: Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, versus approximately 67.7% in Q2, while operating margin fell to 58.7% from 60.3%. The 2-nanometer ramp makes profitability an essential companion to the sales comparison. [4][6][7]
• The next monthly checkpoints are December 10, 2026, for November sales, and January 8, 2027, for December sales. Together they will establish whether October’s strength persisted across the quarter. [11]

2. WHAT IS HAPPENING

As of Friday, November 13, at 9:32 AM ET, the central operating development is TSMC’s November 10 announcement of record October sales. Revenue of NT$586.89 billion rose 59.7% annually, extending the strong growth reported on October 15, when Q3 revenue reached NT$1,494.24 billion, or US$46.72 billion. The question is not whether growth is strong; it is how much growth has accelerated on a comparable basis. [4][5]

The misleading shortcut subtracts Q3’s 41.2% U.S.-dollar growth from October’s 59.7% Taiwan-dollar growth, producing an apparent 18.5-percentage-point acceleration. Keeping both figures in Taiwan dollars reduces that difference to 8.8 points, because Q3’s local-currency growth was 50.9%. That establishes a stronger October annual comparison than Q3’s aggregate comparison—not an 8.8-point acceleration in quarterly underlying demand. [4][5]

October also stood approximately 17.8% above Q3’s average monthly revenue of NT$498.08 billion, calculated from the quarterly total. This supports the view that Q4 began at a higher sales level, but a single month can reflect shipment timing and product mix as well as demand. [4][5]

The U.S.-dollar guidance provides the cleaner quarterly comparison. Q4’s US$52.3–54.3 billion range implies 11.9%–16.2% sequential growth, with 14.1% at the midpoint. Against Q3’s 16.2% sequential dollar growth, guidance describes strong expansion at a broadly steady-to-slower rate rather than an established acceleration. [4]

3. WHY IT IS HAPPENING

OPERATING MOMENTUM AND CURRENCY TRANSLATION ARE WORKING TOGETHER. Demand for advanced AI-related manufacturing, including 2-nanometer technology, was cited as a driver of the revenue increases. In Q3, 2-nanometer accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, 3-nanometer for 33%, 5-nanometer for 28%, and 7-nanometer for 10%. These figures support an advanced-process growth story, although revenue growth alone does not isolate shipment volume from pricing and mix. [4][5]

The currency mechanism explains much of the difference between the quarterly headlines. Average exchange rates were approximately NT$31.98 per U.S. dollar in Q3 2026, versus NT$29.91 a year earlier. More Taiwan dollars per U.S. dollar means dollar revenue translates into a larger local-currency amount. [7][29]

The relationship is approximately:

TAIWAN-DOLLAR REVENUE GROWTH FACTOR = U.S.-DOLLAR REVENUE GROWTH FACTOR × CHANGE IN NT$ PER U.S. DOLLAR.

Using the rounded disclosed rates, 1.412 × (31.98 ÷ 29.91) produces approximately 51.0% Taiwan-dollar growth, close to the reported 50.9%. The exchange-rate ratio increased about 6.9%; its interaction with dollar revenue growth explains why the growth-rate gap is approximately 9.7 percentage points. [4][7][29]

For October, the same discipline requires converting both the current and prior-year periods using their corresponding exchange rates. Converting only this October’s sales into dollars does not establish dollar year-over-year growth. October 2025 revenue was NT$367.473 billion, which provides the local-currency base for the reported roughly 59.7% increase. [5][27]

THE GUIDANCE BRIDGE ALSO NEEDS ARITHMETIC CONSISTENCY. Dividing October’s NT$586.89 billion by an assumed 31.8 gives US$18.46 billion, rather than US$17.81 billion. The calculations below therefore use US$18.46 billion explicitly as an illustration. At that same exchange rate, Q4 guidance becomes NT$1,663.14–1,726.74 billion; after October, November and December would need to average NT$538.13–569.93 billion to reach the range. [4][5]

That required average is below October’s record. It suggests TSMC could meet guidance without successive monthly records, but it does not turn October’s run rate into a quarterly forecast.

Profitability adds a second constraint. Q3 net income rose to NT$763.06 billion from NT$706.56 billion, approximately 8.0% sequential growth, while Taiwan-dollar revenue increased 17.6%. Gross and operating margins declined as the earnings call discussed dilution from the 2-nanometer ramp. The distinction is important: faster sales can coexist with slower earnings growth during a technology transition. [4][6][7]

4. WHO IS AFFECTED

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing — TSM / 2330

For TSMC investors, the primary exposure is to sustained advanced-node demand and the earnings conversion of that demand. Q3 EPS of NT$29.43, versus NT$27.25 in Q2, illustrates earnings progress alongside margin pressure. U.S. investors should anchor quarterly sales comparisons to the dollar series while retaining Taiwan-dollar results for local reporting and profitability analysis. [4]

CNBC’s 3:27 AM ET article reported TSMC up 11% for the week amid a rotation across semiconductor shares. That reported weekly performance raises the importance of distinguishing an already-strong operating trajectory from evidence of a further acceleration. [45]

Chip designers — Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom

The same early-morning article reported weekly moves of −11% for Nvidia (NVDA), +30% for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and +24% for Broadcom (AVGO), while identifying TSMC as the manufacturer of Nvidia’s most advanced processors. The interpretation is that changes in market share among designers can support a foundry differently from any individual customer; those stock moves nevertheless do not measure incremental foundry demand.

[45]

DOLLAR AND INTEREST-RATE EXPOSURE

At 9:32 AM ET, the dollar-tracking UUP ETF was 29.45, up 0.09%, while the long-duration Treasury TLT ETF was 79.27, down 0.56%. The official 10-year Treasury yield closed November 12 at 5.10%. These are separate cross-asset channels: currency changes reported revenue translation, while higher discount rates can pressure the valuation assigned to future growth. UUP is not a substitute for the specific Taiwan-dollar exchange rate used in TSMC’s accounts. [2][3]

5. THE NUMBERS

Calculated figures below use the cited revenue totals; the Q4 Taiwan-dollar bridge assumes NT$31.8 per U.S. dollar throughout.

• Q3 REVENUE, TAIWAN DOLLARS: Latest NT$1,494.24bn · Change +50.9% YoY; +17.6% QoQ · What is driving it Operating growth plus translation [4]
• Q3 REVENUE, U.S. DOLLARS: Latest US$46.72bn · Change +41.2% YoY; +16.2% QoQ · What is driving it Same-currency quarterly baseline [4]

• Q3 AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE: Latest NT$31.98/US$ · Change From NT$29.91 a year earlier · What is driving it Approximately 6.9% higher translation ratio [7][29]
• OCTOBER REVENUE: Latest NT$586.89bn · Change +59.7% YoY; +14.7% MoM · What is driving it Record monthly sales [5]

• OCTOBER VERSUS Q3 MONTHLY AVERAGE: Latest NT$586.89bn versus NT$498.08bn · Change +17.8%, calculated · What is driving it Higher opening sales level for Q4 [4][5]
• OCTOBER ILLUSTRATIVE DOLLAR CONVERSION: Latest US$18.46bn · Change 34.6% of Q4 midpoint · What is driving it Calculated at NT$31.8/US$ [4][5]

• Q4 DOLLAR REVENUE GUIDANCE: Latest US$52.3–54.3bn · Change +11.9%–16.2% QoQ, calculated · What is driving it Strong growth; no clear sequential acceleration [4]
• REQUIRED NOVEMBER–DECEMBER MONTHLY AVERAGE: Latest NT$538.13–569.93bn · Change 3.6%–8.3% below October · What is driving it Conditional path to Q4 guidance [4][5]

• Q3 GROSS MARGIN: Latest 66.4% · Change Approximately −1.3 percentage points QoQ · What is driving it Technology-ramp dilution [4][6]
• Q3 OPERATING MARGIN: Latest 58.7% · Change −1.6 percentage points QoQ · What is driving it Revenue growth outpacing margin conversion [7]
• Q3 NET INCOME: Latest NT$763.06bn · Change Approximately +8.0% QoQ · What is driving it Earnings rising more slowly than sales [4]

6. WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD WATCH NEXT

• NOVEMBER 10’S SALES RELEASE: this week’s operating checkpoint established October revenue of NT$586.89 billion; the relevant follow-through is whether the next two months sustain a guidance-consistent level rather than whether each sets another record. [5]

• NOVEMBER 13’S SEMICONDUCTOR ROTATION: CNBC’s early report of TSMC +11% for the week should be evaluated separately from revenue acceleration, because changing preferences among chip stocks can move valuations without changing aggregate foundry orders. [45]
• DECEMBER 10—NOVEMBER SALES: compare the release with October and the illustrative NT$538.13–569.93 billion monthly requirement for the remaining quarter, adjusting the bridge for the applicable exchange rate. [4][5][11]

• JANUARY 8—DECEMBER SALES: the final monthly print will complete the local-currency quarter and show whether October’s strength was sustained or concentrated at the quarter’s start. [11]
• THE NEXT QUARTERLY DOLLAR COMPARISON: measure Q4 year-over-year growth against Q3’s 41.2% in the same currency, and Q4 sequential growth against 16.2%; these answer different acceleration questions. [4]

• BULL SCENARIO: sustained sales near October’s level, dollar revenue toward or above US$54.3 billion, and margins stabilizing around Q3’s 66.4% gross and 58.7% operating would strengthen the case that advanced-node demand is overcoming ramp costs. [4][6][7]

• BEAR SCENARIO: revenue near the US$52.3 billion low end would imply approximately 11.9% sequential dollar growth, while further margin compression would show that a strong local-currency headline can coexist with slowing growth and weaker earnings conversion. [4][7]

7. ANALYST TAKEAWAY

TSMC’s growth is substantial under either currency: 50.9% in Taiwan dollars and 41.2% in U.S. dollars in Q3. October’s 59.7% local-currency increase adds evidence of strength, but comparing it directly with quarterly dollar growth exaggerates the apparent change in pace. [4][5]

The biggest analytical risk is mistaking translation and a strong single month for sustained operating acceleration. The opportunity investors are weighing is that advanced-node demand remains strong enough to support higher quarterly revenue while technology-ramp costs become easier to absorb.

The decisive evidence will be a completed quarter measured in one currency, alongside margins. Until then, the defensible conclusion is strong growth and a promising start to Q4—not a precisely established acceleration in underlying demand.

Prepared for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

SOURCES

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• [27] [[按一下這裡並鍵入主標題]](https://pr.tsmc.com/system/files/newspdf/attachment/41910f9f9b8e05da7c4f8085b2adf40926c523ff/Oct%202025%20%28C%29_final_wmn.pdf?utm_source=openai)
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This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.