One of Wall Street’s Top Bulls Cuts S&P Target as Tariffs Bite

​It’s official: even the bulls are blinking.

Deutsche Bank’s Bankim Chadha, one of Wall Street’s most optimistic strategists, has just slashed his S&P 500 year-end target by 12% to 6,150, citing the escalating impact of President Trump’s trade war on corporate America​.

The revised call still implies some upside from current levels, but it wipes out all gains since the February peak, signaling that even the most confident market voices are now tempering expectations.

Chadha’s team also delivered a sharp earnings downgrade, forecasting S&P 500 EPS will fall 5% in 2025, compared to the prior consensus of 8% growth. Their new EPS estimate? $240, down from $282—largely due to the disproportionate hit U.S. companies are expected to take from the latest tariff hikes.

The strategists estimate the new tariffs effectively raise the import tax rate from 2.3% to 26.4%, which would amount to an $800 billion economic hit—far exceeding the $500 billion in federal corporate tax revenue collected last year.

The S&P 500 is already down nearly 9% year-to-date, with sentiment deteriorating across the board. Guidance cuts are stacking up, and analysts say the profit downgrade cycle is gaining steam.

In the short term, Chadha sees the S&P trading in a wide 4,600–5,600 range, driven by volatility and investor positioning at extreme lows. Relief rallies are possible—but durable gains, he says, will require a meaningful policy shift from Washington.

“A credible relent,” he wrote, “likely needs a significant drop in approval ratings.”

​Bottom line: One of the market’s biggest bulls just tapped the brakes—hard. If the tariff storm doesn’t pass soon, Wall Street may have to start rewriting the 2025 playbook altogether.