Oil Steadies After Wild Week as Focus Swings to Trade Talks

​After one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory, oil prices stabilized Friday as markets shifted their gaze from Middle East conflict to U.S. trade negotiations. Brent crude hovered near $68 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate floated above $65, both still down more than 11% for the week.

This week’s drama began with a spike in prices after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, only to plunge when President Trump announced a ceasefire with Tehran. That truce reduced fears of supply shocks from the Persian Gulf, a region that pumps nearly a third of the world’s oil.

Now the spotlight turns to tariffs.

Trade Takes the Driver’s Seat
With Middle East tensions on pause, investors are watching developments in U.S.-China trade talks. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a trade understanding was finalized, including provisions for China to deliver rare earth materials to the U.S.—a critical move as tech and defense industries scramble to secure supplies.

The timing is no accident. The White House faces a July 9 deadline to decide whether to slap "Liberation Day" tariffs on multiple trading partners. Lutnick says deals with up to 10 countries are being negotiated, suggesting Trump is playing carrot-and-stick diplomacy ahead of that call.

Meanwhile, Iran has rejected any suggestion it will resume negotiations with the U.S., though CNN reports the Trump administration may offer sanctions relief or unlock restricted Iranian funds to restart diplomacy. So far, Tehran isn’t biting.

OPEC+ on Deck
Next up: the July 6 OPEC+ meeting, where the group will decide August production quotas. Analysts at Commerzbank warn that any major increase could pressure prices further.

“Oil prices have stabilized at the level seen before the escalation of the Middle East conflict,” they noted, “but another supply hike could be a litmus test.”

Bottom line: With the guns quiet—for now—and trade diplomacy heating up, oil’s next big move may depend more on tariff tweets than tankers in the Gulf. Keep your eyes on Washington and Vienna—because the next week could set the tone for the rest of summer.