Oil on Track for Biggest Weekly Gain in Three Months

​Oil Prices Surge
Oil is set to notch its biggest weekly jump in more than three months, with Brent climbing above $69 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate topping $65. The move reflects tightening geopolitical pressure alongside shifting supply dynamics.

Trump Turns Up the Heat
President Trump has been leaning hard on Russia’s energy buyers. This week, he pressed Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stop purchasing Russian oil and held talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on energy security. He also scolded NATO allies for keeping Russia’s energy trade alive.

War Adds to Market Jitters
On the battlefield, Ukrainian drone strikes continue hammering Russian energy infrastructure, threatening to reduce the country’s exports of crude and refined products. European diplomats added fuel to the tension, warning Moscow that NATO would retaliate if Russia violated alliance airspace again.

Analysts See Upside Risks
Energy experts warn that with ongoing strikes and U.S. political pressure, short-term risks for oil prices are skewed to the upside. Traders are betting supply disruptions could deepen before any relief arrives.

Supply Picture Still Loose
Despite the weekly rally, oil remains stuck in the tight trading range it’s occupied since early August. The International Energy Agency still expects a surplus later this year, driven by extra barrels from OPEC+ members and new production in the Americas.

Kurdistan Exports Returning
Adding to that outlook, exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region are about to resume after a two-year pause. Initial flows of 230,000 barrels per day are expected, potentially climbing to half a million barrels per day — another factor that could cap prices.

The Bottom Line
​Oil’s rally shows how quickly geopolitics can override fundamentals. Trump’s pressure campaign and Ukraine’s attacks are giving prices a lift, but with OPEC pumping more and Kurdistan reopening its pipeline, the longer-term picture still leans toward oversupply.