Oil Holds Steady as Markets Watch Trump’s Russia Play

​Oil Prices Take a Breather
After nearly a week of sliding prices, oil markets finally steadied on Friday. Traders are holding their breath as they wait for President Trump’s next move to push for an end to the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs, Meetings, and Tensions
Earlier this week, Trump doubled tariffs on all Indian imports to 50%, punishing the country for buying Russian crude. That decision sent India’s state-run refiners scrambling for new suppliers. He’s also hinted at possible tariffs on China for the same reason. On the diplomatic front, Trump said he’s open to meeting Vladimir Putin, even if the Russian leader hasn’t agreed to sit down with Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy.

Why Prices Are Struggling
Brent crude hovered near $66 a barrel after six straight daily drops—the longest losing streak since May. Analysts say the market doesn’t expect a major supply squeeze, partly because the U.S. has little interest in an oil rally that could fuel inflation. On top of that, OPEC+ has been loosening production cuts, raising concerns of a glut later this year.

Demand Concerns Add Pressure
Trump’s broader trade tariffs are already weighing on U.S. economic activity, stoking fears about slower growth and weaker demand for energy. Combined with the possibility of excess supply, it’s keeping a lid on prices.

Signs of Market Flexibility
Oil players aren’t sitting idle. Russian Urals cargoes are now being offered to Chinese buyers who don’t usually purchase them, a sign of how quickly trade routes can shift. Meanwhile, Brent’s prompt spread—a key gauge of near-term supply tightness—has narrowed significantly over the past month, showing looser market conditions.

The Bottom Line
Geopolitics is still calling the shots. Until traders get clarity on Trump’s Russia strategy, the market will likely remain cautious, with prices struggling to build momentum.