Oil Drops as OPEC+ Eyes More Supply and Iraq Revives Pipeline

​Prices Slip After a Strong Week
Oil prices fell Monday as traders braced for fresh supply pressures. Brent slid back below $70 a barrel and WTI hovered near $65, erasing some of last week’s 5% gain.

OPEC+ May Pump More
Saudi-led OPEC+ is weighing another output hike in November, potentially matching the 137,000 barrels a day already set for October. While smaller than past increases, the move adds to worries that a growing glut could cap prices.

Iraq’s Pipeline Comes Back Online
Iraq resumed crude flows from its northern fields to Turkey after more than two years of downtime. The restart is expected to add around 230,000 barrels per day back into global supply, further amplifying oversupply concerns.

Gains Despite the Glut
Even with the risk of surplus, crude remains on track for both monthly and quarterly gains. The market has been buoyed by strong Chinese stockpiling and ongoing geopolitical tension, particularly from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

Analysts Split on Outlook
RBC Capital Markets expects another incremental production increase in November, while the International Energy Agency is warning of a record surplus by 2026 if OPEC+ and rivals keep ramping up. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, forecasts Brent could tumble to the mid-$50s next year, despite current support from Chinese demand.

The Bottom Line
​Traders are caught between two forces: robust demand today and looming oversupply tomorrow. With Iraq barrels flowing again and OPEC+ signaling more output, oil’s path looks volatile — and heavily tied to geopolitics.