“Not Yet the Big One”: Bearish Pro Says Market Crash Is Still Loading

​Mark Spitznagel isn’t popping champagne over the market drop following Trump’s tariff blitz — far from it. The Universa Investments founder, who’s built his fortune betting on financial disasters, says what we’ve seen so far isn’t the crash. It’s just the opening act.

“I expect an 80% crash when this is over,” he warned in a commentary to MarketWatch. But he doesn’t think this is it. “This is a trap,” he said — a shakeout to catch investors off guard before the real chaos begins.

Spitznagel is no stranger to doom-laden predictions. His hedge fund, Universa, is designed to profit from rare market catastrophes — the so-called “Black Swan” events. And if his track record counts for anything, investors should listen up. Back in 2020, when COVID knocked the wind out of Wall Street, Universa posted jaw-dropping gains of over 4,000%.

Even now, Spitznagel says they’re trading as if another crash is around the corner. “This isn’t Armageddon. That time will come as the bubble bursts,” he said. He knows this sounds crazy when others are still clinging to optimism. But he’s used to being the voice in the wilderness — and doesn’t mind it.

The markets have been anything but calm lately. After Trump’s latest round of tariffs, stocks went into a tailspin, with the S&P 500 logging its worst two-day drop since March 2020. And yet, Spitznagel insists this isn’t the end — just turbulence before the real storm.

He’s long worried about the weight of America’s debt, calling it a ticking time bomb. But he’s also wary of those trying to time a meltdown perfectly. “We’re not in the business of predictions,” he said. “We’re in the business of protection.”

While his message may feel bleak, Spitznagel doesn’t believe average investors need to become doomsday traders to survive. In a previous interview, he advised retail investors to stick with simple strategies like buying low-cost index funds — just don’t panic when things dip.

​His final advice? Don’t be the sucker who sells at the bottom and buys at the top. Stay in the game — just don’t ignore the risks. “Take it from a professional doomer,” he said, “this isn’t it. But it’s coming.”