Markets Hold Steady as CPI Report Looms

Futures Catch Their Breath
Wall Street hit the pause button Thursday. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures barely budged as traders waited for the consumer price index (CPI) — the data that could set the Fed’s next big move.

Fresh Records Before the Pause
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh highs, powered by Oracle’s blowout earnings forecast that kept the AI trade alive. Wholesale inflation also cooled more than expected, reinforcing bets that the Fed’s September rate cut is locked in.

CPI in the Spotlight
Thursday morning’s CPI release (8:30 a.m. ET) is the last major piece of data before the Fed meets September 19. Economists expect inflation stayed sticky, with headline prices rising. Traders are also watching closely to see if Trump’s tariffs are creeping into consumer costs.

Rate Cut Odds
Despite lingering price pressures, markets are still leaning heavily toward easing. CME’s FedWatch tool pegs the odds of a 25-basis-point cut at 92%, with just an 8% chance of a bigger half-point move.

Labor Market Still Weak
The Fed’s hand is being forced by a significant slowdown in jobs growth, which has taken center stage in recent weeks. That makes Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report another key data point for investors.

Corporate Earnings on Deck
Big names are also reporting: Kroger and Adobe are set to post their results, giving Wall Street another peek at consumer resilience in the face of sticky inflation.

Alibaba Joins the Headlines
Separately, Alibaba stock jumped in premarket after the company announced plans to raise $3.17 billion through convertible notes, adding to a wave of fundraising across Chinese tech giants battling heavy competition in AI and cloud.

Oil Prices Hold Ground
Oil, meanwhile, steadied after a three-day rally. Traders are weighing President Trump’s latest remarks on Russia, with Brent holding above $67 a barrel and WTI near $63.

The Bottom Line
​The market mood is clear: record highs are nice, but the CPI report is the real test. A hot number could spook traders, while a cooler print may give the Fed the green light to slash rates next week.