JPMorgan Turns Bullish on Stocks—But Warns a Tariff Hangover Looms

​JPMorgan’s trading desk just turned tactically bullish on U.S. stocks—but with a big asterisk.

After months of caution, JPMorgan says a technical rally is underway, fueled by Big Tech earnings and hopes for trade deal breakthroughs​. Strategists led by Andrew Tyler predict that stocks can keep climbing for now, thanks to light investor positioning, low liquidity, and improving sentiment around trade talks.

But they’re also sounding the alarm: this rally might only have a few weeks left before reality bites.

“The de-escalation trade has room to run,” Tyler wrote, “but this is not an all-clear for markets.” He warned that by early summer, the economic drag from Trump’s tariffs will start showing up in U.S. data—and the market could hit another wall.

The bank sees the S&P 500 trading between 5,200 and 5,800 points over the next stretch, driven by positive headlines but vulnerable to recession fears later this year.

JPMorgan’s call is rooted less in fundamentals and more in technicals: investors are underexposed to stocks, creating upside momentum as long as negative news stays quiet.

Adding to the cautious optimism, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is putting China “on hold” for now to focus on securing trade deals with other countries—a strategy markets hope will delay a full-blown trade war.

Still, JPMorgan’s equity research team is preparing to sell into strength, not chase gains, warning that any lasting shift higher would require a “meaningful narrative change” around tariffs, inflation, and economic growth.

Bottom line:
​Enjoy the rally while it lasts—because if history holds, tariffs, recession risks, and souring earnings could bring the next rough patch sooner than many investors expect.