Holiday Glow-Up: Treasury Chief Bets on a 3% Finish

​Bessent’s big call: the year ends strong
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is feeling upbeat about where the U.S. economy is headed as 2025 wraps up. His headline prediction: real GDP growth will land around 3% for the year, fueled by what he describes as a “very strong” holiday shopping season and an economy that’s holding up better than many expected.

From wobble to rebound: the GDP story so far
The year hasn’t been a straight climb. Early 2025 started with a dip — GDP shrank about 0.6% year over year in the first quarter — but the economy quickly flipped the script. The second quarter bounced hard with growth around 3.8%, and more recent estimates for the third quarter suggest momentum is still there, hovering in the mid-3% range. Bessent’s view is that even with political turbulence, the economy found its footing.

Consumers are spending — but still feel miserable
Here’s the weird split-screen moment: spending is strong, yet confidence is not. Consumer spending makes up close to 70% of U.S. GDP, and shoppers have been keeping the engine running. But sentiment remains gloomy. The University of Michigan’s survey showed a slight December uptick, yet overall confidence is still far lower than a year ago. People are buying, but they’re not exactly smiling while they do it.

Inflation: lower than before, still annoying
Prices aren’t accelerating like they were in past years, but they’re still pinching. The delayed September inflation data showed consumer prices up about 3% year over year, with everyday necessities like groceries rising a bit more than that. So even if inflation is calmer on paper, it still feels loud in real life — especially at the checkout line.

Trump says “affordability” is a myth — Bessent says it’s a narrative problem
President Donald Trump has been brushing off voter concerns, calling “affordability” a political trick. Bessent didn’t repeat that line, but he did argue that Americans’ negative view of the economy is being amplified by media coverage and by lingering inflation effects from the prior administration. His take is basically: the numbers are better than the mood.

Voters aren’t convinced yet
Despite the government’s optimism, a recent poll shows roughly two-thirds of registered voters think the administration has fallen short on the economy and cost of living. That gap between official confidence and public frustration is the real tension point heading into next year.

The pitch for 2026: from recovery to “prosperity”
​Bessent’s closing argument is hopeful and a bit punchy: yes, inflation left scars, yes, people feel squeezed, but the trajectory is improving. He expects 2026 to be more about prosperity than patch-up work — assuming growth holds, consumers stay active, and price pressures keep fading.