Google’s Kodak Moment? Why Some Analysts Are Sounding the Alarm

​For decades, Google has reigned supreme in the search game, turning into a verb and a tech titan in the process. But with the AI wave crashing down hard—and young users flocking to ChatGPT—some on Wall Street are starting to whisper a once-unthinkable question: Is Google in danger of going the way of Kodak?

That’s not just a hot take—it’s the center of a provocative note from Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research. He didn’t mince words: “Is Google the next Kodak?” That’s a spicy comparison. Kodak, after all, was once a household name until it failed to pivot when digital cameras disrupted the market it had dominated for a century.

In this modern cautionary tale, ChatGPT is the digital camera, and Google Search is the film. And while Google’s parent company Alphabet still rakes in tens of billions in free cash flow, it’s facing a real branding crisis among the next generation. Kids today don’t “Google” their homework—they “ChatGPT” it. That’s a linguistic shift with big-time business consequences.

​Sure, Google is still flush with cash—$77 billion in free cash flow projected for this year alone—and it’s pushing hard in the AI race with Gemini, its own chatbot. But Gemini hasn’t captured cultural mindshare like ChatGPT has. Reitzes warns that Google's advertiser base, the very lifeblood of its business, could prove just as fickle as Kodak’s loyal photofinishing partners once did.

Wall Street is also sending mixed signals. Investors are cheering Microsoft for trimming capital expenditures, but Reitzes argues Google can’t afford to do the same. If it pulls back now, it risks falling behind in the AI arms race—and unlike Microsoft, it doesn't have the same luxury of coasting on momentum.

Adding to the uphill battle is the branding dilemma. "Google" is a cultural juggernaut, but Gemini? Not so much. Meanwhile, ChatGPT is already a verb, woven into the daily habits of students and young professionals. That kind of mindshare is priceless—and potentially threatening.

Even if OpenAI doesn’t sell ads today, it’s not hard to imagine a future where it does—and siphons off a big chunk of the global search ad pie. With younger users in the driver's seat, advertisers may have no choice but to follow.

Reitzes isn’t hitting the panic button yet. He still has a "hold" rating on Alphabet stock. But he’s watching the company’s cloud business closely—if it can pick up steam, it could help offset the pressure on search. Still, the underlying message is clear: the future isn’t guaranteed, even for giants.

And if that sounds a little dramatic, well, remember what happened to Kodak.