Goldman Sees S&P 500 Rising on Fed Easing and Big Tech Power

​Goldman Sachs is getting even more bullish on the stock market.

The Wall Street bank has raised its return forecasts for the S&P 500 over the next three, six, and twelve months, fueled by expectations of earlier and deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts and the ongoing dominance of large-cap stocks.

Goldman now sees the index hitting 6,400 in three months, 6,600 by year-end, and 6,900 over the next 12 months. That’s an 11% gain from current levels by mid-2026.

What’s Driving the Optimism?
Goldman’s call hinges on several key factors:
-Fed pivot: The bank expects the Fed to cut rates sooner than previously anticipated, easing pressure on equities.
-Lower bond yields: Declining yields could redirect investor flows into stocks, especially tech and other large-cap names.

Mega-cap momentum: Continued strength in the biggest stocks—think Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia—is expected to keep propelling the index upward.

Earnings resilience: Even with near-term softness, Goldman raised its forward P/E ratio forecast for the S&P 500 from 20.4 to 22 times, citing investor confidence in long-term growth.

A Rebound From April’s Selloff
Markets had wobbled back in April after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff blitz, but have since rebounded on signs of resilience in the labor market and optimism over global trade negotiations. Goldman noted that inflation and corporate survey data now point to lower-than-feared tariff pass-through—giving stocks more room to breathe.

Tariff Caution Still Lingers
Despite the bullish tone, Goldman’s analysts warned that the full impact of U.S. tariffs is still unfolding. While large-cap firms may have inventory buffers, smaller players could feel the pinch later in the year. The firm maintained its +7% earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 in both 2025 and 2026 but flagged risks on both the upside and downside depending on how tariffs and global demand play out.

Bottom line: Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its belief that rate cuts, tech strength, and economic resilience will drive the S&P 500 to new highs. But with tariffs looming and volatility still in the mix, the road to 6,900 won’t be without speed bumps.







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