Futures Rise as Markets Eye Thanksgiving Rebound

​Futures Point Up as Traders Try for a Comeback
U.S. stock futures leaned higher heading into the shortened Thanksgiving week, and the vibe is basically: “Let’s see if Friday’s bounce has legs.” S&P 500 futures crept up, Nasdaq 100 futures led the way, and Dow futures hovered close to flat — a cautious relief rally after November’s bruising slide.

Investors aren’t exactly popping champagne yet, but they are looking for a route out of the month’s funk.

The AI Trade Cools, but It’s Not Dead
November has been a reality-check month for the AI-powered market surge that dominated most of 2025. The S&P 500 is down roughly 3.5% for the month, the Dow is off close to 3%, and the Nasdaq has taken the worst of it — down more than 6% as traders rethink sky-high valuations in AI favorites.

The takeaway isn’t “AI is over.” It’s “AI isn’t a straight line up.” And the market is relearning that in real time.

A December Cut Is Back on the Menu
A big reason futures are perking up: renewed hope for a December rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams recently suggested there’s still room to lower borrowing costs, and traders latched onto that like it was oxygen. After weeks of wobbling expectations, rate-cut bets are drifting higher again — and that’s giving growth stocks a little more breathing room.

When the Fed whispers “maybe,” markets hear “party might continue.”

Data Is Returning, and It Could Stir Things Up
With the shutdown backlog slowly clearing, markets are finally getting fresh economic signals again. This week’s limited but meaningful lineup includes September producer prices and retail sales, plus a consumer confidence update. After weeks of flying blind, even older data feels like a flashlight in a dark hallway.

If those numbers show cooling inflation or a softer consumer, rate-cut hopes rise. If they don’t, expect another mood swing.

Earnings Quiet Down, but a Few Names Matter
Earnings season is tapering off, so the spotlight narrows to a handful of big reports. Alibaba and Dell are the notable tech entries, while retailers like Best Buy and Kohl’s offer a pulse check on the holiday shopper. With markets on edge, even a small surprise — good or bad — can hit harder than usual.

And remember: Thursday is a full stop for Thanksgiving, with an early close on Friday. Thin volumes can turn normal moves into dramatic ones.

Bottom Line
Futures are up because investors want a rebound, rate-cut optimism is creeping back, and the market is desperate for real data again. But after a month of AI jitters and valuation hangovers, this week is less “all clear” and more “cautious reset.”

​The bounce is trying to build. Whether it sticks depends on the Fed, the data drip, and whether AI giants can keep proving the hype has earnings behind it.