Fed Day Eve: Markets Freeze, Nvidia Pops, Everyone Waits

​Futures in neutral, nerves in overdrive
Tuesday morning looked calm on the surface: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures barely budged. But don’t confuse “flat” with “chill.” Traders are basically holding their breath ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year, which kicks off today and wraps with a decision Wednesday.

Nvidia gets a China green light — with a price tag
The big premarket spark came from Nvidia. Shares jumped around 2% after President Trump said Nvidia can resume selling its top-tier H200 AI chips to “approved customers” in China and other regions. The twist? The U.S. government takes a 25% cut of the sales value. It’s a rare blend of trade restriction and revenue-sharing — and for Nvidia, even a taxed doorway back into China is still a doorway.

Markets are nearly married to a December cut
The Fed story is the real headline, and Wall Street is heavily leaning one way. Traders are pricing in about an 89% chance of a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, matching the easing moves earlier this fall. That expectation is doing a lot of emotional lifting for the market right now — it’s the safety net under stocks hovering near record territory.

The bigger question is 2026, not this week
A cut this week feels close to locked in. What’s not locked in is the path after that. Investors want to hear whether the Fed plans more cuts next year or whether this is the end of the easing sprint. Translation: Powell’s tone will matter as much as the actual decision. A “we’re cutting but staying cautious” vibe could cool the rally fast.

Earnings season still has heavyweight punches left
While everyone stares at the Fed, a few major companies are about to test the market’s mood. Oracle, Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon report soon, giving investors fresh reads on AI demand, chip momentum, and how strong (or stretched) the consumer really is heading into year-end.

Bottom line: a quiet morning before a loud week
​Stocks are in a holding pattern, Nvidia is enjoying a new export lifeline, and all roads lead to Wednesday. The market isn’t moving much because it doesn’t want to pick a direction too early — but once the Fed speaks, that hesitation is likely to vanish in a hurry.