


Thursday, November 27, 2025

The AI “Bubble” Panic? Ives Says It’s Way Too Early
If you think the AI boom is already overheating, Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives has a polite-but-firm rebuttal: we’re not late in the cycle — we’re barely in the opening scene. His argument is simple: hype is loud, adoption is still tiny. Only about 3% of U.S. companies have meaningfully adopted AI so far, and globally it’s under 1%. That’s not bubble territory, he says. That’s runway.
In other words, people are calling “top” while the plane is still taxiing.
Why This Isn’t 1999 All Over Again
Ives has been around long enough to remember the dot-com years, and he says the comparison doesn’t hold up. Back then, lots of tech stocks traded at sky-high multiples on nothing but dreams and PowerPoints. Today’s AI leaders are printing real money, spending on real infrastructure, and selling into real demand.
The biggest proof? Chip shortages. In a true bubble, supply floods the market chasing speculation. Here, demand is still outrunning supply — especially for Nvidia-grade AI hardware. For Ives, that’s not froth. That’s unmet need.
The “AI 10” — The Core Winners He Wants Investors Holding
Ives’s top picks are basically his “can’t-build-AI-without-them” list. They span chips, cloud platforms, consumer devices, cybersecurity, and autonomy:
- Microsoft — Positioned to monetize AI across enterprise software and cloud.
- Palantir — The AI operating layer many governments and companies are leaning on.
- Nvidia — Still the backbone of most serious AI builds.
- AMD — The most credible challenger to Nvidia as demand keeps exploding.
- Tesla — Not just cars; the robotaxi and autonomy roadmap is the real AI bet.
- Apple — The consumer AI gatekeeper through devices and ecosystem.
- Meta — AI spending is starting to translate into real monetization.
- Alphabet — Gemini models plus in-house chips put it at the front line.
- CrowdStrike — AI-driven cybersecurity with rising enterprise dependence.
- Palo Alto Networks — Using AI to unify security and drive growth.
The common thread: these companies don’t just benefit from AI hype — they define the plumbing of the AI economy.
Who Didn’t Make the Cut — and Why
Ives left out a few big names people might expect — Amazon, Salesforce, IBM, Intel — but he isn’t calling them losers. He still sees upside in each and includes them in his broader AI universe. His point is narrower: they’re “supporting cast,” not main characters. They’ll benefit, sure, but they’re not the essential gears that make the system move.
The Real Fuel: Spending That’s About to Go Vertical
Ives thinks AI capital spending could hit $550–$600 billion by 2026, pushed by hyperscalers, governments, and enterprise buyers all trying to lock in an advantage. With adoption still low, he believes investors are underestimating how long and how big this buildout gets.
His party metaphor says it all: AI isn’t stumbling out of the club at midnight. It’s getting warmed up — and the night runs until 4 a.m.
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© Copyright 2024. All Rights Reserved.