Citi Turns Bullish on Gold Amid US Growth, Tariff Woes

​From Bear to Bull: Citi’s Gold Forecast Flip
After months of warning gold could fall below $3,000 an ounce, Citigroup has reversed course. The bank now expects the precious metal to surge to $3,300–$3,600 in the next three months, citing a deteriorating U.S. economy and aggressive inflation-boosting tariffs as key drivers.

This is a stark shift from the bank’s June projection, which had gold dipping under $3,000. Analysts now believe tariffs averaging more than 15%—higher than previously expected—are setting the stage for a gold rally.

Recession Fears Fuel the Rush to Safe Havens
In a note released Monday, Citi analysts led by Max Layton noted that persistent fears of a U.S. recession, coupled with three years of high interest rates, have pushed investors toward gold as a hedge against risk.

They pointed to President Trump’s record-setting trade tariff agenda as another fear factor likely to drive prices higher. According to the note, "This fear has likely only increased over the past six months".

Gold’s Highs and Plateaus
Gold prices spiked above $3,500 per ounce earlier this year, setting a record in April. Since then, prices have plateaued as traders wait for new macroeconomic cues.

But Citi’s pivot aligns it with other bullish players like Goldman Sachs and Fidelity International, signaling a broader shift in sentiment on Wall Street.

Looking Ahead: Strong Now, Cautious Later
Even as Citi embraces a short-term bullish view, it remains cautious about 2026. The bank warned that positive trade developments and potential stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could ease investor anxiety, potentially dragging gold prices back down.

Interestingly, Citi analysts noted that their previous call of $3,150–$3,500 had “worked out well,” despite the change in tone.

Final Word: Safe Haven or Speculative Spike?
Citi’s change of heart isn’t just about gold—it’s a reflection of growing uncertainty around inflation, trade policy, and economic resilience. With inflation risks back in focus and geopolitical tension building, gold is once again a frontline asset in the market’s defensive playbook.

​As long as uncertainty rules the headlines, don’t count gold out. Citi sure isn’t.