CEO Gloom Deepens as Tariffs Rattle S&P 500 Outlook

​Wall Street isn’t the only one nervous—corporate America is officially spooked.

In a shift reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, CEOs are turning sharply negative on the economy, according to a new analysis by Bank of America. Executives’ comments on earnings calls this quarter have shown the worst ratio of positive to negative macro commentary since 2009, driven largely by the uncertainty of President Trump’s rapidly changing trade policies.

Instead of lifting markets like usual, this earnings season has been marked by guidance cuts, recession warnings, and investor anxiety. The S&P 500 is down nearly 15% from February’s record high, and companies with exposure to global trade—like carmakers, airlines, and semiconductors—are feeling the brunt.

The numbers paint a grim picture:
-27% of S&P 500 firms have cut 2025 guidance, while just 9% raised it.
-Companies slashing forecasts have seen stock prices drop 4.8% the next day.
-Meanwhile, those that beat or maintained guidance only saw a 1% gain on average.

Big names like ASML, Delta Air Lines, and Kimberly-Clark have either pulled guidance or lowered outlooks altogether, saying they can’t quantify the damage of tariff shocks and supply chain upheaval.

“We’re basically flying blind,” said strategist Cayla Seder at State Street, warning of an “information vacuum” similar to the early COVID-19 days, as companies retreat from offering forecasts at all.

Bottom line: The mood in boardrooms is turning sharply pessimistic, and if guidance keeps collapsing, markets could face deeper volatility—until there’s more clarity on tariffs, trade, and the path ahead.







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