Apple Rises Despite Tariff Uncertainty—Here’s Why Wall Street Isn’t Panicking

Apple hasn’t officially escaped the tariff storm, but the market is already cheering. Shares of the tech giant climbed 2.2% on Monday, even as President Trump vowed new tech-focused tariffs and denied that recent exemptions were, in fact, exemptions.

The boost comes after U.S. Customs and Border Protection clarified that smartphones, laptops, and other major electronics would not be hit by the steepest reciprocal tariffs targeting Chinese imports—at least for now. That guidance, while murky, was enough to give investors hope that Apple avoided the worst.

According to Needham’s Laura Martin, Apple dodged a near-term bullet. She estimated that more than 80% of Apple’s products are made in China, and moving even 20% of its supply chain stateside would take years and sharply raise costs. That’s why the exemption news, despite the political back-and-forth, was a relief.

But risks remain. Apple reportedly flew over 1 million iPhones from India to the U.S. in a rush to beat tariff deadlines—a costly maneuver that hints at lingering logistical pressure. And analysts warn that supply chain disruptions or future policy shifts could still affect Apple’s margins and free cash flow.

Ben Reitzes of Melius Research believes Apple still isn’t out of the woods but sees a clearer path than before. He thinks Apple’s earnings per share could beat expectations by more than $1, especially with iPhone sales likely surging in March and April ahead of tariff fears. That demand, though, may fade in May and June.

The big wildcard? Apple’s existing $500 billion U.S. investment pledge, which some analysts believe may need to rise further to keep regulators off its back.

Bottom line: Tariff threats aren’t gone—but for now, Apple’s avoided direct hits, and the market’s betting it can navigate the rest.
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